At the annual Shangri-La Security Dialogue, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., President of the Philippines, laid out a red line in his nation’s standoff with China in the South China Sea. According to the BBC, Marcos stated, “If a Filipino citizen was killed by a willful act, that is very close to what we define as an act of war. Is that a red line? Almost certainly.”
It is indeed a rather low threshold for an act of war. But for a publicly articulated red line, that could initiate diplomatic action between the Philippines and China. In the case of those two countries, we may be beyond that point.
China Coast Guard vessels have regularly used water cannons to strike smaller Filipino ships attempting to resupply Filipino Marines station on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal. In some cases, there have been collisions between vessels. So far, neither side has suffered casualties as a result of the standoff.
Marcos may have issued this red line to keep the dispute from escalating, but China is taking a different tack. China recently passed a law, slated to go into effect on June 15, 2024, called the Administrative Law Enforcement Procedures of Coast Guard Agencies.
This new law allows Chinese Coast Guard vessels to arrest foreign nationals venturing into waters claimed by China. Since the new law includes disputed waters, the escalation of hostilities between China and the Philippines is likely.
The basis of this dispute has been ongoing for decades. Although it has resulted in hostilities, such as a short conflict between China and Vietnam, China’s growing military has changed the situation.
With China’s growing assertiveness, the Philippines initiated arbitration against China under the auspices of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) to challenge China’s claim of historical sovereignty over the South China Sea, among other issues. The international court ruled in favor of the Philippines on most counts and was explicit in stating that China had illegally restricted access to portions of the area and violated the sovereign rights of the Philippines.
China didn’t participate in the arbitration. However, Beijing said it would not recognize the ruling although China is a signatory to the court. The court does not have any ability to enforce its decisions, so while China claimed it would rely on diplomacy to settle disputes, Beijing continues to act with seeming impunity.
The Philippines and the U.S. have a mutual defense treaty. The government in Washington has been keen to state that it will help defend the Philippines, but there is some uncertainty of whether the treaty applies to disputed territory.
In the case of the Spratly Islands, the U.S. certainly has an interest in preventing China from expanding its territorial holdings not only because of its proximity to the Philippines, but also due to the proximity to the Malacca Strait. Malacca is a strategic chokepoint between the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean that sees 60% of global trade transit its waters, according to the National Bureau of Asian Research.
The Malacca Strait is a weak point in Chinese security. If it were blockaded by hostile forces, it would disrupt energy and raw materials flowing into China and keep exported products from flowing out.
China has managed to secure other avenues for supply chain flow via its Belt and Road network. However, the volume of ground transports pales in comparison to oceanic shipping.
If China were to gain control of the area it’s claiming in the South China Sea, China would then have better military options for contesting control of the Malacca Strait. But for this situation to happen, China would have to seize the disputed islands without triggering a U.S. response under the U.S.-Philippine mutual defense treaty.
It’s not a matter of whether China wants war or not. Instead, it’s a matter of security for all nations that surround the South China Sea and not one of them wants to become a client state to Beijing.
For nations like the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia or Indonesia, the overlapping claims in the South China Sea are not just about fishing rights or freedom of navigation. It is a matter of sovereignty.
Given the strategic importance of the region, any outbreak of hostilities could quickly become global in nature. China will try to take what it can using its Coast Guard rather than its Navy to avoid a military confrontation, but it’s clear that the Philippines has had enough of Chinese aggression in the disputed waters off the Filipino coast.
The red line laid out by Marcos makes it clear that the Philippines won’t tolerate further China military action. But what is less clear is just how far each nation is willing to go if the line is actually crossed. Hopefully, diplomacy is exercised before each nation’s limits are put to the test.
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