Putin’s promised three-day “special military operation” has now dragged on for two and a half years. Russia has an ongoing offensive in Ukrainian territory, but it is slow-moving. As a result, Ukrainian defenders, much smaller in number, can stymie Russian forces.

Ukraine isn’t faring much better, however. The Ukrainian military hasn’t been able to break through Russian lines, nor has it had the necessary long-range weaponry to target Russian supply lines deeper in Russian territory. With several uncertainties regarding continued European support, Ukraine opted to take the initiative and invade Russia’s Kursk Oblast.

Ukrainian forces currently claim that they occupy nearly 1,000 kilometers of Russian territory, but Ukraine hasn’t disclosed the rationale behind the incursion. That isn’t a bad tactical decision. Kyiv doesn’t want or need to publicly disclose its troop movements, but it does raise the question of Ukrainian goals.

Russia and Ukraine Both Need the War to End

What is clear is that both Russia and Ukraine need the war to end. This incursion by Ukrainian forces may play a role in future negotiations.

During the spring of 2024, Russian forces initiated an offensive in Ukraine, focused on the regions around the Ukrainian cities of Sumy and Kharkiv. Russia saw an opportunity to exploit the delay in Western military support to Ukraine and wanted to force Kyiv to pull some of its forces away from other areas where Moscow wanted to advance.

The offensive initially worked, but soon stalled when Western funding came through and the human wave tactic employed by Russia didn’t have the desired effect of breaking through Ukrainian lines near Donbas. Ukraine employed a smart approach to these mass human wave attacks by slowly ceding ground to Russian forces, all the while engaging poorly trained and equipped Russian soldiers.

This tactic limited Ukrainian losses and inflicted high casualties on the Russian side, causing these attacks – and Russia’s wider offensive – to stall. Fighting continues between Russia and Ukraine on Ukrainian territory, yet neither side appears to be making much progress.

Russia will fortify its newly gained territory, and Ukraine simply does not have the weapons nor manpower to contest Russian forces directly. That lack is possibly what led Ukraine to launch its incursion into Russia.

What Was Ukraine’s True Purpose in Invading Russian Territory?

Ukraine’s incursion into Russia is not meant to simply occupy Russian territory, although there is value in that occupation. Instead, the Ukrainian units operating in Russian territory will exploit several options to disrupt Russian operations and logistics.

Ukraine has suffered greatly from the aerial assaults of Russia’s glide bombs and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Entering Russian territory provides Ukraine the opportunity to disrupt, if not destroy, the airbases launching some of these attacks.

Another avenue of interest to Ukrainian forces is the targeting of Russia’s air defense network. With Western-supplied F-16s finally arriving in Ukraine, Ukraine will want to remove ground-based threats to these new aircraft wherever it can.

Military aircraft are expensive, and trained pilots are rare. Consequently, Ukraine needs to utilize this new aircraft in such a way that they will clear a way forward for Ukrainian forces on the ground with minimal threats.

Lastly, the Ukrainian incursion can also provide cover for Ukraine’s special operations forces in Russia. Those forces can sabotage the logistics and infrastructure that support the Russian war effort.

The Russian territory occupied by Ukraine does not directly abut Russian lines in Ukraine. The invaded area is just to the north of the Russian city of Belgorod in the Kursk Oblast, while Russian lines begin to the south of Belgorod, just on the other side of the shared border.

This small separation will force Russia to pull some soldiers and other military assets off the front lines in Ukraine to deal with the incursion. So far, Ukrainian forces have operated in Russia with minimal resistance, but that lack of resistance is unlikely to last.

The other challenge for Ukraine is maintaining supply lines to their troops in Russia. If Ukraine wants to disrupt or sever Russian supplies running into their country, then the reverse is likewise true.

Russia will do whatever it can to directly target Ukrainian forces in Russia, while also looking for opportunities to cut off their supply chains. But Ukraine will likely withdraw its forces from Russia before that happens. Otherwise, Ukrainian leaders will sacrifice a unit they can ill afford to lose.

It’s also possible that Ukraine could withdraw its forces from one area and invade another area of Russia.

This incursion into Russia is the first invasion suffered by Moscow since WWII, so it is not something to take lightly. For Ukraine, the incursion is one of necessity since any negotiations to end the war will likely lead to a loss of territory. Leaders in Kyiv will need to get creative in how they fight Russia to maintain Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

Eventually, Russia will find a way to eject invading Ukrainian forces if they don’t leave voluntarily. But this incursion into Russia demonstrates that Moscow has some significant vulnerabilities with political repercussions.

Considering the Wagner revolt against Russia that occurred over disputes between Russian forces fighting in the Ukraine war, it is not an overstatement to say that Putin faces challenges to his power. Putin just reshuffled his cabinet with an eye on fixing several issues revolving around the Ukraine war, but it appears the change in leadership was just window dressing. Either way, this war has entered a new dimension that will be pivotal to the future of both Ukraine and Russia.