Way-Too-Early Predictions for the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline

Now that the offseason is coming to a close and the start of the 2023-24 season looms, the next big date for roster moves is going to be the 2024 NHL trade deadline.

Even though no games have been played and we still have to see how every team looks on the ice, we might have an idea as to what the deadline might look like in terms of buyers, sellers and players who could be available.

We know the teams that have low expectations and might be selling, we have some idea about the teams that should be contenders, and we know who is entering the final year of their contracts and who might be on the block as rentals.

So, with that information in mind, let's take a look at some way-too-early predictions for the 2024 NHL trade deadline.

This has been a long overdue development.

The Winnipeg Jets have been at their ceiling with this current core group for several years now, and it is abundantly clear they are not going to be a serious Stanley Cup contender.

They have the type of top-end talent to be competitive, but not enough depth around it to win it all. They haven't recorded more than 95 points since the 2017-18 season and have won just a single playoff series since then, but they are never so far out of it or bad enough that it kick-starts a full rebuild.

General manager Kevin Cheveldayoff is extremely methodical in his roster building and seems content to let things play out with the roster he has unless a player forces his hand.

At some point, you have to reach a tipping point in that mindset, and the Jets might be there. It is painfully obvious they are not going to be anything more than a mediocre team with the roster as constructed, while two of the most prominent players on the team—Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck—are entering the final year of their contracts.

You could say the rebuild is already beginning after Winnipeg bought out Blake Wheeler and traded Pierre-Luc Dubois. That should signal that Hellebuyck and Scheifele are very much on the block.

The Jets might not be at the bottom of the NHL standings, but they can't afford to risk losing those two for nothing. They will be the two most prominent names available early next year and help the team land assets that can finally let it start anew.

It is staggering that the Los Angeles Kings didn't trade for a goalie this offseason, but they turned their focus to further bolstering their center depth by trading for Pierre-Luc Dubois from Winnipeg and signing him to a long-term, big-money contract extension.

The Kings have a top-tier roster that should have almost every necessary ingredient to win the Stanley Cup, with the possible exception of a proven, reliable goalie.

They go four deep at center with Anze Kopitar, Phillip Danault, Dubois and Quinton Byfield. They have good finishers on the wings and were one of the best lockdown defensive teams—they were sixth in Corsi For percentage—in the NHL during the 2022-23 season.

Even though they finished among the top 10 in terms of scoring chances against (10th), expected goals against (2nd), and total shot attempts (5th) against during 5-on-5 play, they were still only 15th in the league in goals against, mainly because they had some of the league's worst goaltending. They were 22nd in the league in 5-on-5 save percentage and 27th in all situations save percentage, both of which were among the worst for playoff teams.

The fact that they won as many games as they did and finished as good as they did in goals against is a testament to how good the rest of the team is. Put a reliable goalie behind that team and you might have a champion as soon as this season.

The Kings currently have Pheonix Copley and Cam Talbot as the two NHL goalies on their roster, and that cannot fill their fans or the front office with much confidence.

That could (or should) put L.A. in the market for somebody like Connor Hellebuyck from Winnipeg or Juuse Saros from Nashville.

The Kings reportedly inquired about Saros at the 2023 deadline, and there would be no reason for them to not do so again.

Data via Natural Stat Trick

This might be a little out of left field, but let's try to look at it objectively.

Even though the Minnesota Wild were a playoff team a year ago and figure to still be in the postseason discussion this year, it's a team that does have some noticeable flaws.

The Wild also took a significant step backward in 2022-23 due in large part to the salary-cap nightmare that stems from the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts.

Those buyouts are still on the books and accounting for more than $14 million in dead money both this season and next season.

That severely limits what the Wild can do in terms of building a roster and how they can address their flaws.

For as good as the Wild were this past season, a lot of that success was built on the performance of goalie Filip Gustavsson, who finished the year with a .931 save percentage.

When he was the goalie of record, the Wild had a .670 points percentage, which works out to a 110-point pace over 82 games.

When he wasn't the goalie of record, they only played at a .590 pace, which is a 95-point pace over 82 games. That is a fringe playoff team.

Even if you believe Gustavsson is a legitimate starting goalie, and perhaps even an excellent starting goalie, expecting a .930 save percentage again over a full season is a lot. And if that number regresses (as it likely will), the Wild's ability to keep winning is also going to regress and might push them back to the playoff bubble.

That brings us to Zuccarello. As good as he is, does he have a future in Minnesota? He is a pending unrestricted free agent after this season, is going to be 37 years old next year, and the Wild still have $14 million in dead money looming on next year's cap.

They also only have 12 players under contract for next season. It is very likely his future is not in Minnesota. Given that, and the possibility of the Wild continuing to regress, it stands to reason that the Norwegian could be a trade chip later in the year.

The Jake DeBrusk situation in Boston has been quite the saga over the past couple of years and included a trade request, rescinding that trade request, and him having a nice breakout year offensively that saw him score 27 goals in only 64 games for a record-setting Bruins team.

The 26-year-old has expressed a desire to remain in Boston, but there are a few hurdles toward that becoming a reality.

The first, and perhaps most important, is that he will be a pending free agent after this season. Given how thin the next crop of free agents looks to be, combined with DeBrusk's recent production, he could find himself as one of the most in-demand players on the market, especially after Tampa Bay just re-signed Brandon Hagel to an eight-year, $52 million contract.

Does Boston have the salary-cap flexibility—or the desire—to offer similar terms and dollar amount?

And then there is the other looming question that isn't getting enough play with this Bruins team: What if they simply aren't as good as expected?

There are a number of significant red flags with this roster following an offseason that saw them lose Patrice Bergeron, David Krejčí, Taylor Hall, Nick Foligno, Tyler Bertuzzi and Dmitry Orlov, while only replacing that group with players such as James van Riemsdyk and Milan Lucic.

And that's to say nothing of the potential regression that could come from the goaltending duo of Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman. The Swede is good, but nobody is good enough to post a .938 save percentage every season, especially a goalie who has an extensive track record of being a .918 goalie.

It is not outrageous to think that the Bruins could go from 65 wins to the playoff bubble, especially given how good the rest of the Atlantic Division and Eastern Conference is. That, combined with DeBrusk's looming contract, could put him on the block.

After a disappointing debut season, the Seattle Kraken bounced back with a vengeance in year two and not only made the Stanley Cup Playoffs but also knocked off the defending champion Colorado Avalanche.

They are bringing back mostly the same roster.

There wasn't much to suggest their performance last term was a fluke, especially as a young star like Matty Beniers continues to develop.

That means the time is now for the Kraken to strike while the opportunity is there, and given how wide open the Western Conference is, they should put themselves in the market for some of the potential big names who could be available.

A quick look at their roster reveals two areas where they could use some help: another impact center and perhaps a goalie.

Beniers looks like he is going to be a star in Seattle, while 2022 first-round pick Shane Wright is also on the horizon. But if the goal is to win a Stanley Cup right now, they could probably use another top-tier scorer down the middle.

Two names who come to mind are Winnipeg's Mark Scheifele and Calgary's Elias Lindholm, both of whom could be a game-changer for the Kraken lineup.

The wild card, though, might be a goalie.

Seattle tried to begin building its team in the expansion draft process from the net out, investing big money in Philipp Grubauer and Chris Driedger, but it hasn't exactly worked out as planned. None of their goalies had a save percentage over .900 during the 2022-23 season, and it is one of their definite question marks.

Whatever position they address, the Kraken seem like a team that knows its time is coming and should look at the NHL's other recent expansion team, the Vegas Golden Knights, to see how quickly an aggressive mindset can lead to a championship.