Ukraine has made stunning gains on the battlefield

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UKRAINE’S BLISTERING counter-offensive on its eastern and southern fronts has left Russian forces in disarray. Dozens of towns and villages have been liberated in the very regions of Ukraine that President Vladimir Putin illegally declared part of Russia. The Ukrainian pushes have initially centred on the Kharkiv region in the east and Kherson in the south. How much territory has Ukraine taken back, and will the momentum last?

Ukraine’s soldiers have enjoyed stunning success in the east. They launched a surprise attack on September 5th, punching through Russia’s defensive line south-east of Kharkiv city. Swift losses of strategic strongholds, including Izyum and Kupyansk, forced the Russian army into rapid retreat. Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, claimed on September 12th that Ukrainian forces had retaken over 6,000 square kilometres of territory since the start of the month—far more than Russia had captured in recent months.

The Kherson counter-offensive in the south has proceeded at a different rhythm. The long-expected attack there showed few signs of progress throughout September. That changed in early October, when Ukrainian forces pushed Russian soldiers along the western bank of the Dnieper river beyond the town of Dudchany, 30km from the previous front line (see second pair of maps). Ukraine continued to make substantial gains in northern Kherson on October 4th, forcing Russian troops to regroup around Mylove, some 15km southwards. Ukrainian troops have since consolidated their progress and are rumoured to be regrouping for a push past Snihurivka, 45km north-east of Kherson city.

The situation on the ground is fluid and, in some places, ambiguous. There are areas where Russian forces have a presence, or are launching attacks, but which they do not control (labelled as “Russian advances”). Ukraine undoubtedly holds the momentum. In the east its troops are honing in on Kreminna and Svatove in north Luhansk, the only one of the four annexed regions where Russia enjoys anything close to complete control. Ukrainian forces will hope to push the Russians back to the positions they held in Luhansk and Donetsk before the full-scale invasion in February. In the south they will seek to recapture Kherson city. The window of opportunity may prove short. Russian forces will soon be bolstered by thousands of recently mobilised troops. Though poorly trained, they will add bodies to Mr Putin’s fight. The onset of wintery conditions in a matter of weeks may also slow the advance. ■

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