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2023 NFL Free Agents Who Won't Live Up to Their New Contracts
March 19, 20232023 NFL Free Agents Who Won't Live Up to Their New Contracts
The spring is generally a time for optimism, and it's easy to see every NFL free-agent signing through rose-colored glasses.
The reality is that the exciting free-agent addition in spring often becomes the source of frustration and disappointment by the time September, October and November roll around.
At this time last year, Chandler Jones' three-year, $51 million contract was lauded as a positive move for the Las Vegas Raiders. They looked to pair the edge-rusher with Maxx Crosby and form a dynamic duo on the outside.
After Jones put up just 4.5 sacks (with three coming in one game) in 2022, that deal doesn't look so great anymore.
Unfortunately, not every player will be able to live up to the pact they just signed. Players tend to overperform in contract years. Sometimes they are a bad fit for the organization or scheme. Sometimes a club simply pays a player in hopes they will become something they haven't proved to be.
Each of these players lands on this list for some combination of the above factors. It's going to be hard for them to live up to the expectations created by their free-agent contract.
LB Alex Anzalone, Detroit Lions
There's something to be said for continuity, especially since the Detroit Lions rose above .500 for the first time since 2017 last year. There's a little less to be said for it when that continuity perpetuates a defense that gave up 5.2 yards per carry to opposing rushing attacks.
The unit ranked in the bottom third of the league in just about every category that matters. So it makes it a little confusing that the Lions brought back linebacker Alex Anzalone on a three-year, $18.8 million contract.
It isn't the kind of deal that will break the bank, but it isn't a bargain either. The $6.3 million average puts him at No. 13 on the list of inside linebackers at Spotrac.
Over the last two seasons, Anzalone had 59 combined missed or broken tackles and had a career-worst 3.6 yards average depth of tackle in 2022, per Sports Info Solutions.
Now, the Lions have him under contract through his age-31 season in 2025. Unless more favorable contract details emerge, this doesn't feel like a move where he will play through the whole pact.
S Jessie Bates III, Atlanta Falcons
Jessie Bates III finally got his big contract after playing on the franchise tag with the Cincinnati Bengals last year. The Atlanta Falcons were willing to make him one of the highest-paid safeties in the league with a four-year, $64 million pact.
On the positive side, Bates has been incredibly durable. He has played at least 95 percent of the defensive snaps in Cincinnati in each of his five seasons there.
Durability doesn't always mean consistency, though. Bates ranked 13th in Pro Football Focus' grades at the position with a 71.9, including a top-five mark in run defense. Just a year ago, he earned a 56.1 grade from their analysts and allowed a passer rating of 122.0.
Bates will make a positive impact on the Falcons defense. His experience and durability should provide a veteran presence in the secondary that makes those around him better.
It's just hard to see him living up to the play of his payroll peers. That group includes Derwin James, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Jamal Adams. All three of those players have at least one first-team All-Pro season.
Bates was a second-team All-Pro in 2020 (109 tackles, 15 passes defended and three interceptions), but he hasn't come close to those numbers in the last two years.
LB Tremaine Edmunds, Chicago Bears
Tremaine Edmunds is a good player who is just 24 years old despite playing five years in the league. It's understandable that he was a hot commodity for a Chicago Bears team flush with cap space and a defensive-minded head coach in Matt Eberflus.
But the four-year, $72 million contract doesn't leave much room for value to the team. The average salary of $18 million per year puts him fourth among all inside linebackers.
The three linebackers ahead of him on that list—Roquan Smith, Shaquille Leonard and Fred Warner—have been first- or second-team All-Pros in multiple seasons. Edmunds has only been voted to the Pro Bowl twice.
Granted, Eberflus guided Leonard in Indianapolis. He's a good defensive coach who can identify talent. But the performance that should be expected based on Edmunds' price tag is multiple All-Pro seasons.
Edmunds was not invited to the Pro Bowl last season. He's no longer a cog in a great defense surrounded by Matt Milano, Von Miller and an elite pair of safeties in Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer.
He's going to be expected to be the man in that defense when it's a big game for Chicago.
WR Allen Lazard, New York Jets
Allen Lazard's four-year, $44 million contract was likely impacted by the possibility of the New York Jets trading for quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The four-time MVP has been known to be opinionated about who is in his receiver room, and there's built-in familiarity with Lazard from their time together in Green Bay.
What are the odds that Rodgers will still be the quarterback by the time Lazard's four-year deal expires? He's 39 years old and seemingly mulls over retirement every offseason.
So Lazard should be judged based on what he brings to the team in a vacuum.
Viewed through that lens, it's going to be difficult for him to exceed the value of his contract. Lazard is a good blocker and is a massive receiver at 6'5", 227 pounds, but he doesn't provide as much upside as you'd think, even as a No. 2 target.
According to Player Profiler, Lazard was 98th in route win rate at just 30.7 percent. He was also 34th in contested catch rate, coming down with 47.4 percent of those targets. In other words, he struggles to separate and doesn't win at the catch point as much as a receiver his size should.
If Lazard helps bring Rodgers to New York, maybe he's worth it. But he doesn't do it as a receiver alone.
OT Mike McGlinchey, Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos have made it clear they will do whatever it takes to build a wall of protection around Russell Wilson. It makes sense, as he faced the highest pressure percentage of any quarterback last year.
They signed Ben Powers from Baltimore. The guard is strong in pass protection and should help deliver some cleaner pockets for Wilson.
The big-money signing was Mike McGlinchey, though. Adding one of the top tackles in the free-agent class wasn't cheap. It's a premium position that can draw a premium price tag on the open market. The former 49er got a five-year, $87.5 million contract from Denver, with an annual average value of $17.5 million.
That figure makes him the sixth-highest-paid right tackle in the league. The expectation with that kind of pay should be elite pass protection, but that's not necessarily what McGlinchey provides.
According to PFF, McGlinchey allowed six sacks while committing 10 penalties in 2022. Because he's leaving Kyle Shanahan's system, which features plenty of offensive linemen-friendly schemes, those numbers could be even worse under Sean Payton.
This is a lot of money for McGlinchey to live up to when his most recent campaign wasn't worth that much.
DT David Onyemata, Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons haven't had a winning season since 2017 and had a ton of cap space. They were bound to overpay in some spots this offseason.
It's not necessarily a bad thing. Sometimes it takes extra cash to bring in the kind of free agents who can help turn things around.
But defensive tackle David Onyemata will have a hard time outplaying the three-year, $35 million deal he signed with Atlanta. The Falcons have watched him provide consistent play and inside pressure as part of a good Saints D-line for years.
Now, they'll hope he can replicate that level of play under new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen, who is also coming from New Orleans.
But Onyemata is 30 years old and could be showing signs of deteriorating. His PFF grade dropped from 81.9 in 2021 to 64.0 in 2022. His sack total went from two to five, but sacks can be a deceiving stat.
Onyemata was a good signing from the perspective of bringing in system-fitting talent, but his age and declining production will make it difficult for him to live up to the contract.
Statistics via Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted. Salary-cap info via Spotrac.