Exploring Europe’s diplomatic and commercial relationship with China.

By STUART LAU

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WHAT DID XI DO ON HIS 69TH BIRTHDAY ON WEDNESDAY? He called Vladimir Putin.

PERSONA NON NON GRATA: The Russian leader received a diplomatic boost from Chinese President Xi Jinping during the call, their second one-on-one chat since the war against Ukraine started (at least according to public records). Specifically, the birthday boy offered his best buddy “mutual support” on matters of “sovereignty and security.”

Spot the difference: The remarks were a significant rhetorical departure from Xi’s earlier call on Putin to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of “all countries” — a more universal remark that could be loosely interpreted to include Ukraine — which he made a day after the war began.

Spot the hidden words: Notably, there’s neither a reference to “war” nor “ceasefire.” Xi also told Putin that the “Ukraine crisis” should be “reasonably resolved.” Without calling for a ceasefire, Xi only said that China sought to “facilitate world peace.”

EU’S GANG OF FOUR: Greece, Hungary, Malta and Cyprus on Tuesday became the EU’s only outliers refusing to put their names to a joint statement, initiated by the Netherlands, criticizing Beijing’s handling of human rights at the U.N. It’s co-signed by a total of 47 countries. In response, Cuba led a group of 69 countries to oppose the move. “69:47. China won yet another victory at the Human Rights Council,” tweeted Wang Lutong, head of Europe at the Chinese foreign ministry. There is a strong track record of China exerting this kind of influence over EU countries, particularly Greece, because of its large port investments there.

WELCOME TO CHINA DIRECT. As every Thursday, his is your host Stuart Lau, Europe-China Correspondent at POLITICO.

BEFORE WE BEGIN…

CHINA DIRECT GOES LIVE TODAY: At 12.45 p.m. CET, I’ll be hosting a panel on EU-China relations at the POLITICO Competitive Europe Summit. Join me here with the EU’s top official for Asia Pacific Gunnar Wiegand, MEP Raphaël Glucksmann and Janka Oertel, Asia chair at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Ask us anything!

MORE ON RUSSIA-CHINA

ACCORDING TO THE KREMLIN… The conversation between Putin and Xi “was held in a traditionally warm and friendly atmosphere,” Putin’s office said in a statement. “The further development of military and defense ties was touched upon.”

Xi made a bold claim, according to the Kremlin: “The president of China noted the legitimacy of Russia’s actions to protect fundamental national interests in the face of challenges to its security created by external forces.” The latter wasn’t included in the Chinese readout.

PERFECT TIMING: The Wednesday call comes shortly before Europe is set to put on a show of solidarity with Ukraine. The leaders of France, Germany and Italy are expected to visit Kyiv as soon as today, while the EU could recommend candidate status for the war-torn country soon, if more hesitant conservative member countries give it their nod.

True bros: Xi is slated to give a video address at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum on Friday, the Kremlin announced. The event is heavily boycotted this year, with only the Egyptian and Kazakh leaders attending in person alongside Putin.

BYE, RUSSIA EXPERT: China’s Deputy Foreign Minister Le Yucheng — Beijing’s most senior Russia expert — was once tipped to be a strong contender to succeed Wang Yi as the nation’s top envoy when he retires. Not anymore. Beijing announced that Le would be transferred to the National Radio and Television Administration, the body overseeing all broadcasters in China, as the deputy head.

LESSON FOR THE US: The U.S. failure to correctly predict how the Russian and Ukrainian militaries would perform in the early stages of their ongoing war is fueling fears in Washington that America may have major blindspots when it comes to the fighting force of an increasingly powerful adversary: China. The concerns are rising as American spy agencies are reexamining how they assess foreign militaries, and, according to a Biden administration official, are a key driver of a number of ongoing classified reviews, my U.S. colleagues Nahal Toosi and Lara Seligman write.

Big unknowns: The U.S. has limited insight into how the different arms of the Chinese military apparatus would work together in a high-end campaign, analysts said. The U.S. military long ago began emphasizing “jointness” in its training exercises and operations, meaning integrating its air, sea, space, maritime and cyber capabilities. It’s unclear Beijing can do the same in a real-world operation.

Inside the US defense establishment, China is described as America’s “pacing challenge,” meaning that Beijing’s military progress is the primary standard by which the United States should measure its own advances. With that in mind, U.S. officials have to apply lessons learned elsewhere to how they assess China, said a Biden administration official who confirmed that concerns about Beijing’s military strength are key reason for the ongoing reviews. Read the full story here.

SHANGRI-LA DEBRIEF

TOUGH MESSAGING: The Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, which took place over the weekend, offered a rare opportunity for Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe to address an international audience. (The last time he did so was 2019, when he praised the military crackdown on the Tiananmen Square protests 30 years ago.) Not only did he meet with the U.S. and Australian counterparts, he also took unfiltered questions from international media and think tankers on sensitive subjects, including China’s nuclear arsenal.

1. Deterring Taiwan independence: The international outrage over Russia’s war on Ukraine failed to stop Wei from doubling down on possible military action against Taiwan — should it attempt independence. “Those who pursue Taiwanese independence in an attempt to split China will definitely come to no good end. No one should ever underestimate the resolve and ability of the Chinese armed forces to safeguard its territorial integrity,” he said. “We will fight at all cost and we will fight to the very end. This is the only choice for China.” As if the message wasn’t clear enough, Wei said it would be “a path to death” if Taiwan was to declare independence from China.

2. Old message with new toughness: “Overall, Wei’s presentation did not break much new ground,” wrote Ryan Haas, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former director of China at the National Security Council during President Barack Obama’s administration. “His warnings were familiar to anyone who has been in private conversations with Chinese officials or experts over the past year. The publicly-expressed pointedness of some of Wei’s warnings seemed to reflect a worry that Washington is not heeding the strength of China’s concerns and that a more forceful articulation of them may be needed to get the Biden administration’s attention.”

3. Asia-Pacific split into three: There’s China, there’s the group of U.S. key allies comprised chiefly of Australia and Japan, and then there’s “basically everyone else.” That’s the reality check from a Southeast Asian diplomat also present in the room who summarized the mood as such with me. “That’s why you see so many Southeast Asian countries joining both the RCEP [trade agreement, which also includes Beijing], as well as the IPEF [Indo-Pacific Economic Framework launched recently by the U.S.]” An important note would be the future role by Japan in the region. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is keen to make the Japan-U.S. joint presence a dominant role in Southeast Asia. Will the combined prowess of the world’s No. 1 and No. 3 economies be a game-changer?

4. Tomorrow’s Ukraine? Ukraine’s prominent presence at Shangri-La — including a speech by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — is a sharp reminder for Asia what it means for a superpower in the region to disregard international norms and resort to military means. Kishida said in the opening remarks that “I myself have a strong sense of urgency that Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow.” China, meanwhile, was keen to avoid the perception that it found Zelenskyy’s “attendance” a source of discomfort. It furiously rejected social media posts which were indeed falsely suggesting that Chinese officers walked out of the venue when Zelenskyy spoke.

5. PLA’s media outreach: Toward the end of the three-day conference, the People’s Liberation Army organized an unprecedented press briefing with nine mostly-retired generals. It took place inside the hotel complex, with nine tables in a room that one of the journalists joked resembled speed dating. I talked to retired Major General Zhang Yingli, who most of the time toed the official line on any issue from Taiwan, Russia to India. In a bid to tone down the war rhetoric, though, he said that the Chinese military was far behind the U.S. in terms of capabilities.

EUROPE IS BARELY PRESENT: EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell couldn’t make it as he caught the coronavirus shortly before he was supposed to catch the plane. He was meant to have had a rare meeting with Chinese defense minister Wei. France was represented by new defense minister Sébastien Lecornu, who merrily celebrated his 36th birthday with his advisors in the lounge. His Dutch colleague Kajsa Ollongren made a head-scratching remark during a live Q&A that China “condemned” Russia’s war on Ukraine. Germany sent two junior ministers — and the U.K. didn’t even send one.

Overall, it’s great to meet again: Given that many Asian cities remain hypersensitive about reopening their border, it was surprising that Singapore agreed to let the dialogue take place without any restrictions (apart from wearing masks). At one of the dinners I sat next to former Chinese ambassador to the U.S. Cui Tiankai. (He insisted the conversation be off-record, but it’s safe to say that Cui wasn’t the only one in the 600-strong dinner ballroom to be pessimistic about the future of U.S.-China relations.) Asked to sum up the mood, a European diplomat told me: “Maybe a bit Hitchcockian? Like everyone was just so happy to be there they didn’t really notice or care too much about the sands shifting under their feet and not really being sure what is happening.”

ALL AROUND EUROPE

CZECHS IN ACTION: The Czech Republic organized a high-level dialogue on the Indo-Pacific with dozens of European, U.S., British and Asian diplomats earlier this week. There were also Australians and Canadians. This is one of the missions of Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský to showcase a value-driven diplomacy, with much emphasis going to countering the influence of China. “If we don’t stop the current aggressor, new ones will follow,” he said.

The aim of the meeting is to find ways to implement the goals laid out by the EU’s Indo-Pacific strategy. Officials recognize that much of the political energy would be distracted by the Russian war on Ukraine. The EU has wanted to beef up its security presence by working more closely with Southeast Asia, India and even Australia.

Joint moves against China on cybersec: The U.S. and the EU plan to introduce joint funding of secure digital infrastructure in developing countries, the Wall Street Journal reported. The top target recipient countries are those that otherwise might be eager to accept funding from Beijing, it said.

LA CHINE ? NON ! France is trying hard to water down the language against China in the final statement that will be adopted by NATO leaders in the Madrid summit later this month, multiple diplomats say, adding that the U.S. is pushing back. French diplomats insist they’re trying to ensure that NATO stay focused on the Euro-Atlantic theater, while remaining open to addressing challenges posed by China on Euro-Atlantic security.

BEGINNING OF THE END: U.K. lawmakers last week launched a bid to ban China’s controversial Confucius Institutes from operating in the country. Conservative MP Alicia Kearns submitted an amendment that would make it a duty for universities to report the creation of new institutes and give ministers the power to ban them, my colleague Eleni Courea reports.

XI’S MOCKERY

WESTERN HUMAN RIGHTS SUCKS: It might not be a big surprise to our readers that China’s President Xi is not the biggest fan of Western democracy. Yet, an article published under his name this week still offers an interesting glimpse into how the Communist Party machinery is shaping up the ideological rhetoric ahead of the highly expected “vote” to crown him China’s leader for a convention-breaking third five-year term. Not only is Xi dismissive of the West’s political system — with problems ranging from polarization and populism to social disorder — he’s also rallying party members (such as diplomats) to play a more active role in preaching Chinese-style democracy to the world.

— ‘Democracy brings war’: “In recent years, some Western countries have fallen into the predicament of fierce political party fighting, government lack of trust, social disorder, and uncontrollable pandemics,” Xi wrote in the Qiushi periodical, the party’s gospel on ideology. “However, they … forcibly promoted Western concepts and systems of democracy and human rights in the world … leading to frequent warfare, long-term social instability and displacement of people in some countries.”

— Time for a struggle: Party members, Xi says, should “actively start a struggle over international human rights.” One of their main tasks would be to “make China’s human rights model more appealing, more touching, and more influential.”

Which begs the questions: Why was the European Union so excited about relaunching a human rights dialogue with China? On the other hand, why are Chinese officials so afraid of the EU’s notion of a “systemic rivalry”, when it’s exactly what’s unfolding?

BEFORE YOU GO

DON’T TURN AWAY: This video showing a woman in Tangshan city being beaten up by several men after she turned down their advances was the most watched item in China this week. Police said the case involved local mafia. For many, male violence against women is often treated as a social taboo despite its prevalence across the country.

MANY THANKS: To my editor Christian Oliver.

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