The first hurricane of 2022 for the eastern Pacific has made landfall in southern Mexico. Agatha has been slowly moving north towards the Mexican Pacific coast, strengthening before making landfall late on Monday. The storm has produced damaging tropical-force winds and heavy rain.
Winds are easing but heavy rain will continue through Tuesday as the storm moves inland. It is forecast to cause flash flooding and mudslides that could pose a threat to life.
In the worst-affected areas, across the mountainous state of Oaxaca, 300-400mm of rainfall is possible. The storm will have largely dissipated by Wednesday but its remnants may prompt a redevelopment this week within the Gulf of Mexico.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center has said the eastern Pacific is likely to experience a subnormal number of tropical storms this year, whereas there is a 65% chance for an above-normal number of storms within the Atlantic basin.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from 1 June to 30 November, with the potential for three to six powerful hurricanes at category three and above.
Another busy season is forecast for several reasons, including the ongoing La Niña. The phenomenon describes periods when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are cooler than average, increasing hurricane activity within the Atlantic, as opposed to the El Niño phase. In addition, warmer than normal sea surface temperatures and weaker trade winds are predicted in the Atlantic as well as a stronger west African monsoon.
Elsewhere, a cold spell has developed across southern and eastern Australia in the run-up to the start of meteorological winter. A cold front brought crisp air to the south on Sunday, with below-average temperatures forecast for much of the week across the south and south-east.
Parts of south Australia are expected to face the coldest temperatures of the year so far, with Adelaide plunging to 13-14C on Tuesday and Wednesday. Strong winds have accompanied chilly weather, with 30-50cm of snow possible in the Alpine region by the end of Tuesday.