Frontier LatAm countries stand to lose from the spillovers of the war in Ukraine. Fuel is a key driver of import demand in most countries; we estimate a $10 rise in oil prices yields negative trade effects in the range of 0.4% to 1.0% of GDP. El Salvador, Honduras, and Jamaica look most exposed.

The ongoing war in Ukraine clouds the outlook for Turkey’s external deficit. Foreign demand for Turkish goods and services will likely weaken markedly. Higher energy imports and smaller tourism revenues will also be detrimental. However, a weaker Lira should continue to constrain import volume growth. Lower GDP growth, now forecast to reach 2.2%, should also contribute to this. Risks are to the downside with a prolonged military conflict first among them.

Global sukuk issuance surged to a record $250 billion in 2021, up from $180 billion in 2020; Only $5 billion (2% of the total) was linked to environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors—still a niche market; Indonesia has the largest green sukuk market, followed by Malaysia and Saudi Arabia; A coherent, widely-accepted taxonomy and classification framework would support further ESG sukuk market development.