Tuar Míosúil

A dry settled weekend for Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales while England may get some light rain. A cool, breezy first week is expected ahead of some rain next weekend. Across mid-March, conditions should be on the slightly mild side, but we can expect spells of wind and rain for all, possibly very windy at times in northern parts. The pattern should become more settled from the third week of March but still with some wet and windy days over the northern half of the country.

An area of high pressure is nearby this weekend while a weak front may linger across south-east England on Saturday. High pressure will be over the North Sea on Monday morning; this will build and drift east as pressure falls over the north-east Atlantic. From Thursday, frontal systems approach the country from the west.

Saturday will see drier, brighter weather across Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland. England will be cloudier with some outbreaks of light rain or drizzle across the south-east. The rain should clear overnight making way for a dry Sunday for all parts of the country with a good chance of some sunny spells. Temperatures over the weekend will be around 1C below average.

Monday starts settled but becomes windier throughout the day over western regions. Tuesday is another fair day with some sunny spells but breezy for all. Wednesday should be another dry but breezy day for all parts of the country with the best chance for sunshine will be in the east.

On Thursday, winds become stronger, and a band of rain will move across Northern Ireland through the afternoon. On Friday it should remain breezy over all regions with the rain moving across the rest of the country through the morning. By the afternoon the rain should ease for a time. Temperatures over the working week are forecast to start 1-2C below average but climb to nearly seasonal by Thursday.

Over next weekend the wind should ease through Saturday but there is a risk of further outbreaks of rain and some high ground snow over northern parts. Conditions should improve on Sunday as any rain clears through the afternoon as winds ease further. Temperatures are forecast to be 1C above average during next weekend.

In mid-March, we expect high pressure to lie over north-west Russia and Scandinavia while low pressure is the main feature across the North Atlantic. The storm track should affect the country over the first half of the week.

Monday could see some cloudier and wetter weather across the western and northern parts of the country. Other areas may stay dry. Tuesday should be a breezy day except perhaps over south-east England. Spells of rain could affect all parts, but especially Northern Ireland and Scotland, where winds could get quite strong.

Wednesday could be similar to Tuesday with bouts of wind and rain for all parts. Thursday could provide a break in the unsettled conditions as the lows retreat for a time. Any rain would be limited the Northern Ireland and western Scotland. Friday could see a similar pattern to Thursday. Temperatures over the working week are forecast to be 1C above average.

Confidence is low for the weekend. The signs point to breezy conditions with the highest chance of wet weather is over the western half of the country. We may begin to get a return to a more settled pattern by Sunday. Temperatures over the weekend look to be around 1C above average.

In the first week of this period, we think high pressure is likely across the north-east Atlantic, extending across western and central Europe at times, with low pressure over Iceland and Scandinavia. This is a more settled pattern than the previous week. This should bring slightly above average temperatures across all regions.

Spells of enhanced, but not extreme, rain and wind should be restricted to Scotland and Northern Ireland; more seasonal weather is expected across England and Wales. Pinning down the timing of events at this range is not something that is within our ability to accurately forecast, but there is reasonable support for a more settled pattern.

By late March and into April confidence is low due to poor model performance. We think high pressure over north-west Europe, extending across to eastern and south-east Europe, is most likely. This would bring a slightly mild pattern to most regions but nearer seasonal across Scotland. Strong winds should be restricted to Scotland. It will be wet at times across Northern Ireland and Scotland.

Computer models are struggling with the position and strength of high pressure. One risk over the latter half of the forecast would be if high pressure occurs over eastern Europe while a low-pressure pattern is present across the north and north-east Atlantic. This would bring a wetter and windier pattern across the UK.

We get to look at new data to examine. Will it continue to show a more settled pattern from late March?