Trudeau Deploys Vaccine Mandates as Wedge Issue in Canada’s Election

Two days later, Mr. Trudeau called elections to Canada’s Parliament for Sept. 20. Surveys show strong public support for vaccine mandates in Canada except among supporters of Mr. Trudeau’s conservative opponents, who are divided on the issue.

A campaign against the unvaccinated could benefit Mr. Trudeau by attracting new voters and shoring up his declining lead in opinion polls ahead of the elections while sowing discord among his right-leaning adversaries.

Unlike in the U.S., Canada’s major political parties and regional governments have mostly worked in unison to mitigate the pandemic’s fallout, with some success.

But with his political future on the line, Mr. Trudeau is now magnifying the differences from his main Conservative opponent on mandating vaccinations.

“This is not a personal choice. These are choices that have a direct impact on communities, and the responsibility of any government is to be there to protect people,” the prime minister said Friday at a campaign event in Winnipeg, Manitoba.

The International Air Transport Association said it was unaware of any country in the world that bans unvaccinated passengers from planes, as Mr. Trudeau is proposing. “Vaccinations should not be a prerequisite for restarting international air travel…alternative solutions must be offered to those who are unable to get vaccinated,” the trade group said.

On Wednesday, Montreal-based Air Canada said it would follow the government directive and compel its roughly 17,000 employees to be fully vaccinated against Covid-19. Employees are expected to report their vaccination status as of Oct. 30, and the country’s largest airline said failure to get the shots could result in unpaid leave or termination of employment.

Mr. Trudeau’s main political opponent, Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole, said that instead of vaccination mandates, he favors testing and screening of would-be passengers and government employees to minimize risk. “I will respect personal health decisions,” Mr. O’Toole said.

The campaign is taking place against a backdrop of rising Covid-19 infections, although Canada’s case counts remain far below this year’s peak in April. On a per capita basis, Canada’s seven-day average of confirmed Covid-19 cases is the lowest among the Group of Seven leading economies, according to the University of Oxford’s Our World in Data site.

Canada has one of the highest vaccination rates among developed-world economies, with more than 70% of people aged 12 and over fully vaccinated. By comparison, 60% of Americans 12 and up are fully vaccinated.

Canadians overwhelmingly support either mandatory vaccinations or vaccine passports to allow people to enter restaurants, gyms and other public places, according to Ottawa-based polling companies Abacus Data and Ekos Research.

A survey commissioned by KPMG found that over 60% of small and midsize companies will compel their workers to get vaccinated, while over 80% support vaccine passports. Since Mr. Trudeau’s announcement, two of Canada’s biggest corporations, Royal Bank of Canada and TD Bank, have said they would require employees to get vaccinated.

Frank Graves, president of Ekos Research, said Mr. Trudeau’s stance creates a dilemma for his opponents. Ekos polling indicates opposition to vaccine mandates is highest among supporters of the main opposition Conservative Party, at 39%, and of the smaller, right-wing People’s Party, at 66%.

Mr. O’Toole has little hope of defeating Mr. Trudeau if he alienates his base and doesn’t woo members of the libertarian-leaning People’s Party, said Mr. Graves. “But he risks losing some of the more traditional progressive conservative wing if he continues to oppose these measures,” referring to vaccine mandates.

“It’s a big crack” between Canada’s two main parties on vaccine mandates, said Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus of politics at the University of Toronto. The Conservatives criticized Mr. Trudeau’s government daily last winter when Canada had a shortage of vaccine doses, demanding to know when the vaccines would arrive. “Now the line is, ‘If people don’t want the vaccine, it’s OK,’” Mr. Wiseman said. “If you really cared about vaccines, don’t you really care that people should take it?”

The Liberals’ gambit hasn’t rolled out smoothly. Canada’s Treasury Board, responsible for human resources, issued a notice Aug. 16 telling employees that officials would try to accommodate those who don’t get vaccinated, perhaps through testing—which the Conservatives said was in line with their position. Mr. Trudeau said the guidance was posted in error. Public servants who don’t get a shot would face consequences, he warned.

Write to Paul Vieira at [email protected]