22 Predictions for 2022

I think we, as a society and a world, feel a sense of vulnerability about our health that the pandemic has made us reckon with. That is front and center for me as a doctor, thinking about climate change as an issue of health equity. So my hope and my belief is that we are going to prioritize health in a way that we haven’t in a very long time — and that the vehicle of explaining climate action through the lens of its health benefits is going to be front and center. 

Doctors, nurses, social workers, and psychologists are really going to need to play an important role. I am seeing, from my vantage point, a real groundswell of determination to join the climate movement. That gives me a lot of inspiration, that major dots are being connected in a way that I haven’t seen before. 

Networks like the Black Climate Alignment Network [are] seeking to grow the relationship of Black people and Black-led organizations working on climate and environmental justice across the U.S. What’s happening is that we’re saying, “Not in my community and not in any community.” The more that we can deepen those relationships, the less we have vulnerable communities.

There are these small pockets that have a whole lot of access in the areas of resources, power, education, and infrastructure that are positioning themselves to create those entry points for people to be able to access those resources. I think of organizations that are disrupting institutionalized philanthropy, like Hive Fund or US Climate Action Network. I see that growing into 2022. Communities have more tools to be able to talk about and name what they need, because they have the language to advocate for themselves.

I see a generation of concerned people who recognize that the climate crisis is not something you can mitigate, it’s not something that’s negotiable, it’s not something that is conceptual. The climate crisis is very real. The more I see folks stepping into their power and stepping into their agency, the more hope I find that we’ll at least try our best as human beings to not only try to put out some of the fires on the ship, but begin to really think about what we’re going to do when it comes to climate refugees and what we’re going to do to start preparing for things that are coming as we build the world that we want to see. A lot of them are building that world already.

There’s justice to be had in a mostly male, white-led conservation world. Many Indigenous peoples’ lands are currently under conservation easements that they don’t have access to for cultural purposes, for spiritual purposes, for subsistence purposes, for self-governance purposes. I think you’ll see the Indigenous peoples’ struggle and the climate struggle and the landback movement put pressure on not only the world of conservation, but those who fund it. And that will lead to some of the biggest Indigenous-led conservation deals in history in the next 12 to 36 months. 

It’s going to upset the status quo, but it’s change that people should be leaning into even though it feels uncomfortable to them, because I think it will lead to more fossil fuels being left in the ground. It’ll lead to more subsistence rights for Indigenous people to be able to feed themselves and sustain their families, and to more protection of biodiversity that is absolutely fundamental for the survival of humanity and the fighting of climate change. I feel that we’re being listened to in a different way than we ever have been in some of these spaces. There’s a big power shift on the horizon. 

We’ve been a little nervous about some trends where it feels like, because they took a financial hit, these institutions are becoming more cautious and conservative at precisely the time when we need them to be bold and visionary. 

These institutions play a significant role in mediating our understandings of nature and culture, and are considered very authoritative and trustworthy. So we really need to redouble our efforts and call on not just individual artists, activists, and cultural producers, but also our institutions that aggregate or collectivize artists and tell stories about our past, present, and future. We need all sectors of society to be coming together at this critical juncture, to push for the changes that we need. 

In the year ahead, I see artists and educators continuing to teach us how to understand these changes, and inspire and empower us to act with urgency, wisdom, and purpose. I believe there will be more focus on imagining and creatively expressing adaptation and climate reparations for loss and damages. This will reflect and enhance the larger discussions happening in the climate movement. 

I think a lot of writers, authors, and people who produce a lot of other media like TV and video are starting to think about how they can incorporate climate change into their stories. And that inevitably involves imagining and visualizing a future.

I think there’s definitely been pushback against this end-of-the-world narrative that seemed to proliferate in 2020. The reason I do what I do is because there’s no room in our future for these dour, depressing, apocalyptic narratives. If we’re going to have a future, we have to be positive about it.

I think a lot of this is driven by the fact that a lot of Gen Z — and most of my students I consider Gen Z — are starting to become adults and think about it. So now it’s this realization that perhaps we can carve out a future that’s a little more optimistic. 

For [AMP Robotics], we can go into existing facilities and plug in our robots and that can have this huge cost reduction immediately. Just as critical, there is this push both on the legislative front that you’re starting to see, but also consumers pushing brands to use more sustainable packaging. And what this has done is driven up prices for recycled material. There’s much more of an incentive to invest in recycling infrastructure now than there’s ever been.

I think this next year is going to be the beginning of a phase shift for the industry, where interest, combined with technology, will start to have a meaningful difference in recycling rates. They’ve sort of stagnated over the last several years, and I think this is the year that starts to really shift. If we don’t see this happen, it suggests recycling isn’t going to be a meaningful part of the climate conversation. And that would be a real waste.

This is a critical question, because 2023 is the global stocktake for the Paris Agreement. All of the policymakers on an international stage are going to be evaluating not only what countries have delivered, but also what companies, city and state governments, individuals, and NGOs have done on climate change. The critical question going into 2022 is: How do we get that data quickly enough to actually answer those big questions?

We can’t solve the problem without engaging the big [tech] companies. They have more data and information on all of this than any government or any international institution or any individual. Google has its Environmental Insights Explorer, and they’re using traffic data to estimate transport-related emissions for 10,000 cities around the world. Being able to open up this data for good and for solving climate change is going to be the big question of how we get there in the next year.

These [science-based industry] standards just came out [quantifying] net-zero and what that means for a company, so there’s a lot more direction on what you can and cannot do. You can no longer rely on carbon offsets but not really change things in your value chain. The value chain is where we’re going to see more action, more initiative, and more companies hiring for roles that support their suppliers in reducing emissions. 

One thing — and this might be more focused on fashion, but I see it in other industries — is the focus on “regenerative.” There are a lot more companies talking about regenerative agriculture and helping farmers and their suppliers transition to that. I’m seeing more companies wanting support in this area, or making investments and partnering with groups working on regenerative agriculture.

I’d like to see every single company on the globe get carbon smart, to know how big their greenhouse gas emissions footprint is and ways to reduce it. This should be and is becoming “hygiene” practice. From there, we need more transparency and accountability in how much reduction exactly has been achieved on an annual basis. 

So it’s an exciting time — the funding is coming in, the technology’s maturing. 

I believe artificial intelligence is the next huge technological innovation — like fire or electricity — that can push the human race to the next level. Bringing those tools into optimizing infrastructure is something that’s been happening in the last five years. The water industry is a little behind compared to other utilities. But I think in the next five years, you’re going to see more intelligent devices not only from a utility perspective, but from the consumer perspective: What is the water-quality status, how much water are you using, and is there a way you can reduce your water usage based on your consumption? I think it’s going to be a tremendous improvement in the next five years. People are going to adapt all these digital technologies to reduce their water loss and also plan for better infrastructure in the future. 

Existing buildings are going to be here for the next 30, 40, 50 years. How you get existing buildings ready for all these clean electrons will be a defining characteristic of how we make sure the built environment is doing what’s necessary to confront the climate crisis. 

We’ve seen a much larger acceptance of the idea that this is possible in cities and towns, and we’re also seeing a lot of engagement around local policies that embrace electrification and decarbonization. The city of Ithaca, New York, voted to decarbonize its entire building stock, which is an incredible, first-of-a-kind decision for a [U.S.] city to make. Being able to support cities like that, which are taking investments from the federal government and using the power of local government to be where the rubber hits the road for local communities across the country, is going to be the hallmark of how we measure success.

Climate tech startups saw $30.8 billion in investment in the first three quarters of 2021, more than any full year in history. Areas that could have been previously described as subsectors or technology niches — such as electric vehicle charging or carbon accounting — are turning into major industries in their own right.

In 2022, the challenge will be turning this attention and capital into the innovation and rapid deployment we need to decarbonize at scale. For climate tech startups, this means working with some of the biggest companies in the world. That’s what we enable at Powerhouse — our biggest goal for this coming year is to connect as many globally leading corporations to the startups and technologies that are building the path to net-zero.

We’re also seeing a shift in how startups, investors, and corporations are addressing the climate crisis. As we continue to feel the impacts of climate change, venture capitalists and entrepreneurs are increasing their focus on adaptation and resilience in addition to decarbonization — for example, Sust Global and Overstory. Meanwhile, we’re seeing an expanded focus on equity and frontline communities from both investors and founders — for example, Dollaride and Solstice. This next year will be a key test of how much we can move from merely talking about resilience and equity to actually implementing novel solutions at scale using the billions of dollars that have been committed.

One of the primary things that we’ve been working on for quite some time is weatherization and relieving energy burdens, and getting communities of faith involved in caring for their community. With the Justice40 funding that’s coming, as well as some of the funding we have in Build Back Better, we have the opportunity to scale that up. However, I must emphasize the only way we do that is by ensuring that equity is at the forefront of all we do.

The statewide agencies need to be looked at, and there needs to be a directive on where that funding goes. I think the best way to do that is by implementing community advisory boards that help figure out the communities that are impacted the most. I also know that the environmental justice burden mapping that [U.S. Representative] Cori Bush put out will help with that. When it comes down to this climate crisis, we can ill afford to leave anyone out.

I continue to see Indigenous projects that don’t get enough funding, but they are super important for all of us. I think of one in the Southwest in the Tohono O’odham community: There are people going back to traditional farming in the desert where it can be over 110 degrees. Those seeds are adapting to climate change as we go along, year after year.

We need to think of growing food as a concept that the Indigenous people have been figuring out for thousands of years and will continue to. Indigenous values and Indigenous leadership is what we need to look at for all aspects of climate change, whether it’s growing food, keeping companies in check, preventing mining in Mexico and South America, or defending the Amazon forest.

I see more engagement of different sectors to bring their voices forward, to create platforms for voices to be heard. For example, this year, we had a group of small farmers — who are mostly not recognized by the Puerto Rico Department of Agriculture — [hold] a press conference on how different programs, especially funds from FEMA for Hurricane Maria, were not being distributed equally. Many small farmers across rural Puerto Rico don’t have access to those funds. You have the Puerto Rican Farmers Association going to the Capitol and talking about that. You have others bringing attention to how the relationship with the U.S. generates inequality and more suffering. 

So I see more engagement from different communities in bringing their voices forward. People are more empowered, but tired of those persisting inequities. And I think there are more community-built platforms for people to come together and bring visibility to those overlooked or ignored issues. 

In the last couple years, many Americans have been trapped inside, not only because of COVID but because of the horrible air quality from record-smashing wildfires. We’ve all felt the effects of these dramatic weather changes and have been impacted directly or indirectly by extreme heat, storms, and freezes. As billion-dollar climate disasters continue to skyrocket, many businesses are feeling the pinch as well — breweries included. Barley farmers reported 2021 as the worst crop in their lifetimes due to unrelenting heatwaves. The hop crop also took a big hit in 2020, as the plant’s aromas were ruined by wildfire smoke. In Fat Tire’s own watershed, we experienced the largest wildfire in Colorado’s history, rendering the river water black with sediment and unusable for brewing, while freezes like we saw in 2021 exacerbated the pandemic-suffering supply chains, stalling deliveries of key brewing ingredients.

There’s only so much we can do in our daily lives when just 100 companies are responsible for nearly 70 percent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. And just 30 percent of global Fortune 500 companies have an actual climate action plan (for example, they are on the SBTI and RE100 registries). If businesses get on board with real, measurable GHG reductions and goals — like the Science Based Targets initiative to limit warming to 1.5-degrees C — we can avoid the worst of climate change and still enjoy a good, cold beer.

How we increase equity with regard to food is something people are starting to look at. Vertical farming is positioned to be a leader in that local food revolution. 

As we all grapple with climate change, we have to understand that we need systemic solutions and not just point solutions. A business or a farm has the ability to address multiple issues. They can do much more than grow food sustainably. They can grow futures as well — not only within the jobs that we create but how we distribute this food. How do we utilize technology and pair it with underserved populations that don’t have access to meaningful employment? How do you use technology to get food to people in food deserts? The innovation is positioning technology in a humane way, with humanity, and it’s something we need to see more of.

I’ve also had conversations with communities about technology, thinking about how we can employ sensors to monitor things like stormwater quantity and quality to make informed decisions about development. 

We have to move past these incremental, small-scale solutions and start to think about large-scale transformations of how we do business around the systems that we develop and install. A lot of discussion around this infrastructure bill has been focused around transportation systems, but what good is a pristine road or newly developed transit system that’s flooded out because the area has inadequate drainage or green space to manage stormwater runoff? We have to think about the interconnectedness and interdependence of these systems, and leverage that to inform how we prioritize and plan for the rollout of these dollars. 

The E.U. plans to collect a tax on the entry of goods into its market from countries that don’t have a price on carbon dioxide. This won’t occur until 2023, but the fact that it is moving and seems undeterred — though it had some pushback — is going to have an impact on the rest of the world. Even Russia is contemplating a carbon tax because of what the E.U. is doing. It’s going to affect the U.S. as well, because we do an awful lot of trade with the E.U. It is in trading partners’ interests to follow the lead of a country that’s imposing a carbon border adjustment. Why pay the tax to them when you could’ve collected it yourself? 

Our top priority is to show conservatives how the power of their free-market idea of accountability is the solution to climate change. We’re all about showing conservatives the strength of their own ideas, that this is a natural for them. Once we build that constituency on the right, then politicians on the right will be able to support smart, market-based policies like a price on carbon dioxide. 

It’s part of a national movement — there are many states that are adopting these types of constitutional amendments. I think they’re so important, because it’s how we ensure that climate policy is not subject to political whim when there’s a change in governorship, or when a state legislature switches control from one party to the other. I’m really excited about that kind of vision of climate policy that is really deep and sustainable and protects us in the long run. 

Laws can be made and they can be unmade. They are not set in stone, and it’s actually much easier to unmake a law than it is to make a law. In the grand scheme of things, especially in swing states where we know that power can shift frequently, the only thing that remains stable and constant is the constitution. In Maine this year, we created a new constitutional right to food — just saying that you have the right to feed yourself, and that corporations can’t store seeds, and the government can’t interfere with your right to grow your own food. I think there’s a theme [emerging] of citizens being able to protect themselves and ensure that they have a stable future ahead of them. 

We’re seeing more and more communities affected by climate-related disasters, and specifically communities that are grappling with repeat disasters or multiple disasters happening in this very short period of time. 

The number of people who are personally experiencing these disasters and seeing the shortcomings of the emergency-management system is growing. Hopefully, what comes out of that is that people in those communities are able to share their stories, to do organizing, to start building this more well-defined movement for disaster justice. I would love to see a national politician, a member of Congress come out and say that emergency-management reform is something that they are going to take under their wing and start developing and advocating for. 

It takes 80 percent more carbon emissions to create the same dollar value anywhere else in the world — in China, India, and Russia, we’re talking three to four times the amount of emissions to create the same kinds of goods. So our starting point is that the U.S. economy is very clean compared to our competitors. If we price those emissions, if we price the emissions associated with trade, we give a leg up to a U.S. industry that is clean. That’s a competitive advantage. And we decarbonize our supply chains — that’s a climate advantage. 

We are going to see a proliferation of policies that connect climate goals with trade goals, because this relationship is absolutely necessary to support decarbonization. Addressing climate change is going to require a whole lot of policy efforts in a whole lot of places. We should never take our most effective tools off the table. So I want to manifest reinvigorated support for the most effective tools to fight climate change, which always come back to a price on carbon.