1 | Seeking quantitative forecasts (numeric or falsifiable) for the following indicators. Where forecasts are not available, historic data would be helpful. Send data/references to [email protected] Light gray indicators have preliminary values which have been documented at the blog. | |||||
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2 | ||||||
3 | Demographics | |||||
4 | longevity | |||||
5 | fertility | |||||
6 | race/ethnicity | |||||
7 | household makeup (married/single, single parent, two parent, multi-gen) | |||||
8 | urban population | |||||
9 | suburban population / edge cities (proximity to city center) | |||||
10 | ||||||
11 | Environment | |||||
12 | air quality | |||||
13 | expansion/loss of wildlands, forests, wetlands, protected areas | |||||
14 | land use | |||||
15 | farming | |||||
16 | ranching | |||||
17 | mining claims | |||||
18 | greening of cities | |||||
19 | neighborhood parks | |||||
20 | ratio of green to built environment | |||||
21 | [other indicators that might be a green rating] | |||||
22 | climate change [focus on US] | |||||
23 | sea-level rise/warming | |||||
24 | weather patterns (droughts, flooding, etc) | |||||
25 | ||||||
26 | Energy | |||||
27 | energy mix (in general, what’s available) | |||||
28 | home sources/capture (battery, solar) | |||||
29 | consumption (watts/capita) | |||||
30 | ||||||
31 | Government | |||||
32 | IDs (technology, national ID) | |||||
33 | electronic voting | |||||
34 | taxation rates | |||||
35 | voting turn out | |||||
36 | number of people who work in gov’t (federal, state, local) | |||||
37 | number of gov’t contractors / privatization of civic work | |||||
38 | policy/legislative trends or scenarios | |||||
39 | ||||||
40 | Crime | |||||
41 | crime rates (white collar, violent, etc) | |||||
42 | capital punishment (number executed) | |||||
43 | incarceration rate (number of prisoners) | |||||
44 | prison facilities | |||||
45 | police | |||||
46 | number of officers per capita | |||||
47 | badges verses administrative | |||||
48 | court system | |||||
49 | judges, juries | |||||
50 | cases (that go to court versus settling, etc) | |||||
51 | ||||||
52 | Health | |||||
53 | pharmacology | |||||
54 | number rx medicines people take (at different ages) | |||||
55 | number of supplements people take (at different ages) | |||||
56 | illness/injuries | |||||
57 | hospital visits | |||||
58 | doc’s office visits | |||||
59 | sick days | |||||
60 | injuries (at work, in general) | |||||
61 | health-related body modification | |||||
62 | dental braces | |||||
63 | prosthetics | |||||
64 | corrective eye-surgery | |||||
65 | ||||||
66 | Education | |||||
67 | teachers | |||||
68 | classrooms | |||||
69 | colleges (public, private, community colleges) | |||||
70 | college students | |||||
71 | online courses / MOOCs | |||||
72 | highest level of educational attainment | |||||
73 | degrees offered | |||||
74 | educational software | |||||
75 | text books | |||||
76 | vocational education | |||||
77 | presence of arts in education | |||||
78 | web-based training (eg: Lynda, Khan Academy) | |||||
79 | workplace training (compliance, continuing education) | |||||
80 | early childhood education/care | |||||
81 | in-house care | |||||
82 | gov’t care (public preschool) | |||||
83 | work-based day cares | |||||
84 | ||||||
85 | Occupations | |||||
86 | unemployment rate | |||||
87 | business turnover or failure rate | |||||
88 | occupational variety | |||||
89 | service industry vs. manufacturing, etc. | |||||
90 | most commons jobs | |||||
91 | workplace | |||||
92 | remote vs. in office | |||||
93 | amount of time spent telecommuting, teleconferencing | |||||
94 | hours commuting (also listed under Travel tab) | |||||
95 | average size of a company | |||||
96 | number of companies | |||||
97 | start-ups, small co.s, big co.s | |||||
98 | office furniture | |||||
99 | trends for design of cubicles, desks, chairs | |||||
100 | benefits | |||||
101 | vacation days, sick days, parental/health leave, etc. | |||||
102 | ||||||
103 | Religion | |||||
104 | religious affiliation | |||||
105 | attendance at churches | |||||
106 | church buildings | |||||
107 | average age of practitioners | |||||
108 | new religions | |||||
109 | ||||||
110 | Homes | |||||
111 | General | |||||
112 | ownership vs. rental | |||||
113 | avg sq footage | |||||
114 | number of homes per individual/family (prevalence of "second" homes) | |||||
115 | bandwidth to the home | |||||
116 | construction methods (beyond energy conservation) | |||||
117 | single-family homes, duplexes, multi-unit | |||||
118 | Kitchens | |||||
119 | number of kitchens per household | |||||
120 | growth of appliances | |||||
121 | emerging must-have appliances (beyond refrig, microwave, etc) | |||||
122 | shape/design/plan | |||||
123 | meal consumption (at home vs. away) | |||||
124 | food delivery to homes (by type? prepared, make yourself) | |||||
125 | ||||||
126 | Transportation | |||||
127 | General Travel | |||||
128 | daily commute hours/miles on average | |||||
129 | business travel hours/miles on average | |||||
130 | leisure hours/miles on average | |||||
131 | incoming international travel to the US | |||||
132 | Cars | |||||
133 | electric cars (power source) | |||||
134 | size (big, little, trucks, SUVs, sedans) | |||||
135 | self-driving | |||||
136 | [other industry indicators] | |||||
137 | Aviation | |||||
138 | miles flown per year | |||||
139 | new airports, regional airports (smaller players vs big hubs) | |||||
140 | number of airlines | |||||
141 | size of planes | |||||
142 | ownership sharing of jets | |||||
143 | Trains | |||||
144 | high-speed trains (number, location of routes) | |||||
145 | miles of high-speed track | |||||
146 | passenger miles per year | |||||
147 | growth of public transportation | |||||
148 | ||||||
149 | Food | |||||
150 | meals at home vs away from home | |||||
151 | organics | |||||
152 | percent of food supply | |||||
153 | price differential with conventional | |||||
154 | locavore trend | |||||
155 | CSA membership | |||||
156 | miles traveled for food | |||||
157 | home gardening | |||||
158 | percentage of imported food | |||||
159 | lab meat availability and market size | |||||
160 | meat consumption/production | |||||
161 | farm size and crop diversity | |||||
162 | small farmers | |||||
163 | food products launched per year | |||||
164 | gourmet/boutique food stores | |||||
165 | grocery delivery services | |||||
166 | ||||||
167 | Shopping | |||||
168 | dollars spent, hours spent, visits | |||||
169 | downtown | |||||
170 | suburban mall | |||||
171 | independent shops | |||||
172 | online | |||||
173 | ||||||
174 | Downtowns | |||||
175 | square footage | |||||
176 | shopping/retail activity | |||||
177 | NON-shopping/retail activity | |||||
178 | business relocating from suburbs to downtowns | |||||
179 | [how are they being measured? look for other metrics] | |||||
180 | ||||||
181 | Appearance | |||||
182 | clothing - total individual spending | |||||
183 | price of a t-shirt | |||||
184 | clothing - presence of embedded sensors | |||||
185 | style [any indicators that suggest trends in apparel/shoes/accessories/cosmetics] | |||||
186 | body modification for adornment/individual expression | |||||
187 | cosmetic surgery/therapy | |||||
188 | tattoos (number of tattoos, technology) | |||||
189 | piercing | |||||
190 | implants | |||||
191 | ||||||
192 | Sports/Games | |||||
193 | kids playing sports in school, extracurricular | |||||
194 | adult leagues | |||||
195 | exercise classes | |||||
196 | gym memberships | |||||
197 | marathons and other races | |||||
198 | total participation rates | |||||
199 | professional sports | |||||
200 | number of teams/players | |||||
201 | variety of sports | |||||
202 | equipment variety and sales | |||||
203 | facilities | |||||
204 | stadiums, arenas | |||||
205 | videogames | |||||
206 | game diversity | |||||
207 | number of players (by age) | |||||
208 | hours per day for average player | |||||
209 | hours per game | |||||
210 | playing alone vs. group play | |||||
211 | leagues | |||||
212 | esports prevalence and spectation | |||||
213 | dollars in prize money | |||||
214 | emerging sports | |||||
215 | extreme sports | |||||
216 | base jumping, paint-ball, disc-golf | |||||
217 | ratio of established to new | |||||
218 | boardgames, tabletop games | |||||
219 | ||||||
220 | Media | |||||
221 | commonly used media formats | |||||
222 | time spent online (by purpose, content type, engagement) | |||||
223 | private communication (amount, method) | |||||
224 | [for the following, consider abundance, variety, individual consumption and production rates] | |||||
225 | music (songs, albums, collecitons, streams) | |||||
226 | short-form video (television, shorts) | |||||
227 | long-form video (movies, documentaries) | |||||
228 | written content (books, magazines) |